BRENTZILLA

So I promised you, my growing legion of fanpeeps, speculation: Apple’s forecast of its iPod line. Fortunately, if you’re a marketer, it’s pretty basic: The iPod is moving from the “growing” to the “maturing” column of its product lifecycle. 

In other words: The great majority of people willing to buy their first iPod? They already have. 

Soon, you shouldn’t expect Apple to trumpet dramatic increases in the percentage of iPods sold.  Rather, they’ll concentrate on repeat business, draw what new business they can and maintain current levels of units sold. Oh, and sell you an iPhone to top it off.

How do I know? I don’t – but clues abound in Apple’s latest iPod offerings.

First, prices fell, capacities increased, capabilities were tacked on. iPod Nanos, for instance, are $50 cheaper than the previous generation for the gigabytes provided, and now have video tacked on. At $249, the 80GB iPod Classic is $100 less expensive than before (best value in the entire line-up, by the way).

Second, look at the new “iPod Classic.” Huge capacities: 80GB and 160GB for relatively moderate prices — but with no new ”gee whiz!” capabilities included. Where do you go other than to increase gigabytes? This may be the end of WiFi-less iPods with hard drives. If Apple can significantly increase flash memory by next summer, the Classic could die within a year.

Third: $399 gets you a 160GB Classic, 16GB iPod Touch or 8GB iPhone. Apple can do this because the Classic is a known quantity — they have perfected its construction at minimal cost. And because Apple is staking its growth on the iPhone, yet wants people to continue replacing their iPods, they have to make the iPod huge enough and cheap enough to warrant the purchase of both.

So where does iPod Touch fit in? It doesn’t, by design. Apple had to come out with it, but it’s a bit of a loser — high tech, low capacity, pretty much the bastard cousin of the iPhone, yet priced the same. I mean, does an extra 8GBs and limited WiFi access that doesn’t even tap into Mail sound like a winner? Judging by commenters’ reactions, no.

Apple knows all of this, but the company wants you to grab the iPhone (see why here) and upgrade your current iPod, rather than give you a single unit — iPod Touch — that potentially does everything you’d want it — or expect it – to do.

All the above is speculation on my part… but it’s also good marketing strategy, from Apple’s point of view. They’re herding consumers in a couple directions, but not blatantly forcing us to make hard choices.

Marketing manipulation — fascinating!