BRENTZILLA

Apple slashed $200 off the price of the 8GB iPhone yesterday — now you can grab one for $399. So what have I learned?

1. Apple sees the iPhone as its major growth initiative
2. As iPods become ubiquitous, Apple expects iPod sales to flatten
3. Apple is banking on making money off AT&T
4. Apple is forecasting the competition
5. Oh, and now I can skip the whole “early adopter” thing…

No. 5 is pretty self-explanatory: Apple hasn’t dramatically reduced the price of anything, ever. Well, not in recent memory, anyway. Rather, they’ve waited for the next generations of products to either reduce prices, increase capabilities and capacities, or both. So no more standing in line for Apple’s “next big thing” for me. I waited at an AT&T nee Cingular store for two hours the day iPhones became available — and paid $200 to do so, it turns out.

(Not that I don’t love my iPhone. I adore it. So I’m not sweating the $200. Sorta. I do feel a bit burned — it’s only been a little over two months since the thing came out, after all. But enough.)

Apple, undoubtedly, is forecasting sales of the “classic” iPod line to mature — I’ll write about this soon. For now, just accept my premise: Apple expects iPod sales to flatten. The demand for iPhones, however, is set to grow — and generally, in-demand items priced to move will earn more than items priced for exclusivity.

But that’s not all: More iPhones in consumers’s hands equals increased revenues. AT&T pays out a monthly cut to Apple for every iPhone customer. It’s basically a subscription model, one that, unlike Apple’s .Mac service, promises real money.

And finally, iPhones are destined to be “must haves,” unlike iPods. I’m not talking about a must-have fun gadget — an iPhone and what it allows its users to do is, by its very nature, more essential and necessary than any music box. This means a much higher percentage of repeat business as older iPhones die and new iPhones get purchased…

…unless, of course, the competition catches up. Cutting the price not only practically guarantees greater volume sold, but also locks customers into a two-year contract — giving Apple some breathing room to prepare for, say, a rumored Google phone. If I’m Apple, I’m scared of the future.

But to me? The future, it’s fun!

UPDATE: Apparently, Apple’s giving me a $100 credit. Sweet!